Current trends in urbanization, food consumption and climate change continue.
Authors: Matt Royer
Other contributors: Matt Ehrhart, Dave Abler, and Lisa Wainger
As the research team considered the various problem-solving and change-oriented scenarios for agricultural systems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, the need to include a "baseline" or "business as usual" scenario became clear. This scenario creates an opportunity to compare scenarios 2-5, which test the implementation of innovative solutions or disruptive changes, with a future that does not involve any major new solutions to the economic and environmental challenges facing agriculture in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Under Scenario 1, existing trends in urbanization, agriculture, food consumption, and climate continue as is, with the ramifications of business as usual projected over the next 25 years.
In all regions of the Watershed, population is expected to grow and age, with increases in population concentrated in urban, exurban and suburban areas, particularly southeastern Pennsylvania, northern Virginia, and the western shore of Maryland. Land use changes will continue to negatively impact agriculture through conversion of farmland to development, with the majority of farmland lost being among the most agriculturally productive. While farmland preservation programs are in place in the Bay jurisdictions and have successes, they are not enough to stop the trend of farmland loss.
Agricultural production in the Chesapeake Bay watershed is highly diverse, with a variety of livestock and crops grown across the region within small to large farms. Intensive animal agriculture dominates much of the watershed supported by substantial imports of feed from the Midwest. Virginia agricultural production is among the most diverse in the nation, with top commodities being broilers, beef cattle and calves, dairy products, turkeys, and greenhouse/nursery products. Virginia production trends include increased poultry production, a significant decline in tobacco production over the last twenty years, and decline in milk production and loss of dairy farms. Maryland agriculture is dominated by poultry production on the Eastern Shore, particularly Caroline, Wicomico and Somerset counties. Pennsylvania agriculture is diverse and highly productive, ranking in the top ten states nationwide for six different agricultural products. Top agricultural products include dairy products, poultry and eggs, and greenhouse/nursery. The vast majority (88%) of Pennsylvania's farms are small farms, but large farms account for 81% of agricultural sales. The number of farms is decreasing, with threats to small farms including higher production costs, consolidation, and farmland lost due to urban development.
The Chesapeake Bay Partnership has multiple goals to manage agriculture and other land uses to support ecosystem services, particularly those related to water quality and habitat. These ecosystem services are supported by a rate of conservation practice adoption among farmers in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed that is higher than the national average. Common practices include conservation tillage and cover crops, which can improve water quality. Habitat promoting practices include forested riparian buffers and wetland restoration. Adoption of these practices appears to have partially mitigated the water quality effects of increasing agricultural production in the Susquehanna Watershed over time.
Regarding local food systems and food security, Virginia ranks high among states nationally (#8) in fruit and vegetable consumption, an indicator of food security. The data reveals a low percentage of households with food insecurity and a low percentage of the population with no or limited access to grocery stores with affordable fresh food, or food deserts. Pockets of food insecurity and food deserts are found in all cities and counties throughout the state, in both rural and urban areas. In Maryland, indicators suggest similarly high food security and a pattern of local food consumption for some products. The vast majority of Marylanders (88%) shop at supermarkets/supercenters, suggesting good access to diverse foods. Consumer demand for chicken, lima beans, and watermelon are wholly fulfilled by Maryland producers. Pennsylvania shows a strong trend of direct-to-consumer farm marketing, ranking second in the nation in such sales. It ranks first in the nation in organic food production and second in organic farm sales. Trends regarding food insecurity and food deserts are similar to those in Virginia. In all Bay states, there is growing demand for local food and an increase in the number of operating farmers markets.
Projecting these trends into the future without any new solutions, interventions, or changes reveals a growing population, particularly in the rural-urban fringe, resulting in continuing losses of prime farmland than cannot be offset by existing land use and farmland preservation programs. Agricultural productivity continues to increase, but so do farm exits and farm consolidation, especially in dairy. Farm production overall continues to expand in the watershed, particularly for poultry. A large percentage of livestock feed continues to be imported from the Midwest perpetuating nutrient mass imbalances at the watershed scale. Large, highly efficient farms increasingly dominate the landscape and market. Adoption of agricultural best management practices (BMPs) grows somewhat, but not at an accelerated rate.
References
Ruyak, S., Miller, K., Luce, S. Final Presentation. 2022.
Mohammadpour, P., Grady, C., 2023. Regional Analysis of Nitrogen Flow within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Food Production Chain Inclusive of Trade. Environ. Sci. Technol. 57, 4619–4631. doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.2c07391
Read, D.J., Blair, E., Wainger, L., 2024. Effective Engagement Techniques Across the Agricultural Conservation Practice Adoption Process. Environmental Management 74, 1173–1189. doi.org/10.1007/s00267-024-02043-8
